Tutorial · JAO auctions

JAO shows the price of border capacity rights, not the price of electricity.

The JAO auction layer answers how many capacity rights were offered, how many were requested, the €/MWh clearing price and how oversubscribed the corridor was. It is corridor-scarcity context for UA-EU basis, not an energy price forecast and not guaranteed arbitrage.

Read the 5 steps Open workspace

capacity rightsdaily capturenot forecast feed

Direction codes

Alvo's capture/read path recognizes seven UA corridor codes: HU-UA, RO-UA, SK-UA, PL-UA, UA-HU, UA-SK and UA-PL. The workspace currently displays HU-UA by default.

Horizon

Monthly auctions describe longer forward-basis context; daily auctions describe near-term capacity scarcity. A monthly right is billed at the cleared €/MWh price for every delivery hour of its month.

Price

Cleared €/MWh is the price of cross-border capacity, not the DAM/IDM energy price.

Validation

The ablation used 189 live war-era days of HU-UA, SK-UA and PL-UA import-auction data only; first-diff r -0.075 means context only, not forecast lift.

How to read JAO auctions

1. Distinguish the direction

Each direction code carries its own liquidity and friction context; do not collapse them into one average. The workspace currently displays HU-UA by default.

2. Pick the horizon

A monthly row reads as forward-basis context; a daily row reads as near-term capacity allocation.

3. Read offered/requested

Oversubscription matters more than the price bar alone: it shows demand pressure for the border rights.

4. Compare with A11 flows

JAO shows the rights and capacity auction layer; A11 shows physical movement. They are not interchangeable.

5. End with the caveat

JAO daily clearing is corridor-scarcity context. Do not call it a forecast feed, order recommendation or guaranteed arbitrage.

Limits of this signal

No energy price

JAO cleared €/MWh is a capacity-right price, not a DAM/IDM electricity price.

No forecast feed

On the import auctions Alvo tested, JAO added no daily forecast lift; use it as corridor context and cap/band evidence only.

No guaranteed arbitrage

Capacity rights, nominations, flow, settlement and human risk limits still decide whether a spread is executable.

No coupling date yet

Explicit auctions may be replaced by implicit allocation after market coupling, but the go-live date remains gated.

Auction fields

Fields that must not collapse into one capacity price.

jaoAuction.unit = "EUR/MW" // legacy API wire label; cleared price is billed in EUR/MWh
jaoAuction.point = {
  border: HU-UA | RO-UA | SK-UA | PL-UA | UA-HU | UA-SK | UA-PL,
  auctionType: monthly | daily,
  deliveryPeriod: YYYY-MM-DD (CET/CEST date matching auction ID; first delivery day for a monthly right),
  offeredMw: capacity rights offered by the auction,
  requestedMw: demand for those rights,
  clearedPriceEur: capacity price — EUR per 1 MW per delivery hour (i.e. EUR/MWh),
  oversubscription: requestedMw / offeredMw
}

Why is JAO on /status?

Daily capture is operationally important: Alvo can show whether the cross-border auction feed was captured, even when the result is context rather than a forecast driver.

Does the JAO price forecast DAM?

No. On the import auctions Alvo tested, the daily clearing price added no forecast lift, so it is not used as a price-forecast feature.

How does this connect to cross-border basis?

Basis compares UA price pressure with neighbouring context. JAO adds the capacity-right scarcity layer: offered MW, requested MW, cleared €/MWh and oversubscription.

JAO shows the price of border capacity rights, not the price of electricity.

What JAO reads

How to read JAO auctions

Limits of this signal

Fields

JAO auctions FAQ

Why is JAO on /status?

Does the JAO price forecast DAM?

How does this connect to cross-border basis?

Want JAO beside flows?