Tutorial · JAO auctions

JAO shows the price of border capacity rights, not the price of electricity.

The JAO auction layer answers how many capacity rights were offered, how many were requested, the EUR/MW clearing price and how oversubscribed the corridor was. It is corridor-scarcity context for UA-EU basis, not an energy price forecast and not guaranteed arbitrage.

Read the 5 steps Open workspace

capacity rightsdaily capturenot forecast feed

Direction codes

Alvo's capture/read path recognizes seven UA corridor codes: HU-UA, RO-UA, SK-UA, PL-UA, UA-HU, UA-SK and UA-PL. The workspace currently displays HU-UA by default.

Horizon

Monthly auctions describe longer forward-basis context; daily auctions describe near-term capacity scarcity.

Price

Cleared EUR/MW is the price of cross-border capacity, not the DAM/IDM energy price.

Validation

The ablation used 189 live war-era days of HU-UA, SK-UA and PL-UA import-auction data only; first-diff r -0.075 means context only, not forecast lift.

RO Daily probe

In the 2026-06-01–05 Daily probe, JAO returned HTTP 400 "No Data found" for RO-UA and UA-RO. RO-UA remains in the queried set, UA-RO is excluded, and other RO horizons were not measured.

HowTo: read JAO auctions

1. Distinguish the direction

Alvo's capture/read path recognizes HU-UA, RO-UA, SK-UA, PL-UA, UA-HU, UA-SK and UA-PL; the workspace currently displays HU-UA by default. Do not collapse their different liquidity and friction context into one average.

2. Pick the horizon

A monthly row reads as forward-basis context; a daily row reads as near-term capacity allocation.

3. Read offered/requested

Oversubscription matters more than the price bar alone: it shows demand pressure for the border rights.

4. Compare with A11 flows

JAO shows the rights and capacity auction layer; A11 shows physical movement. They are not interchangeable.

5. End with the caveat

JAO daily clearing is corridor-scarcity context. Do not call it a forecast feed, order recommendation or guaranteed arbitrage.

What not to claim

No energy price

JAO cleared EUR/MW is a capacity-right price, not a DAM/IDM electricity price.

No forecast feed

The 189-day ablation used only HU-UA, SK-UA and PL-UA import-auction data and found no daily forecast lift; use JAO as corridor context and cap/band evidence only.

No guaranteed arbitrage

Capacity rights, nominations, flow, settlement and human risk limits still decide whether a spread is executable.

No coupling deadline

Explicit auctions may be replaced by implicit allocation after market coupling, but the go-live date remains gated.

JAO auction read

Minimal sequence before a corridor read.

1. Distinguish the seven UA direction codes in Alvo's capture/read path: HU-UA, RO-UA, SK-UA, PL-UA, UA-HU, UA-SK or UA-PL. The workspace currently displays HU-UA by default.
2. Choose the horizon: monthly or daily capacity auction.
3. Read offered MW and requested MW before reading cleared price.
4. Use oversubscription as corridor-scarcity context.
5. Keep JAO separate from A11 physical flows and from energy-price forecasts.

Auction fields

Fields that must not collapse into one capacity price.

jaoAuction.point = {
  border: HU-UA | RO-UA | SK-UA | PL-UA | UA-HU | UA-SK | UA-PL,
  auctionType: monthly | daily,
  deliveryPeriod: YYYY-MM or YYYY-MM-DD,
  offeredMw: capacity rights offered by the auction,
  requestedMw: demand for those rights,
  clearedPriceEur: capacity price in EUR/MW,
  oversubscription: requestedMw / offeredMw
}

roDailyProbe = 2026-06-01..05 returned HTTP 400 No Data found for RO-UA and UA-RO;
               RO-UA queried, UA-RO excluded, other horizons not measured
validation = 189 live war-era days using only HU-UA/SK-UA/PL-UA import-auction data;
             first-diff r -0.075 => context, not forecast feed

Why is JAO on /status?

Daily capture is operationally important: Alvo can show whether the cross-border auction feed was captured, even when the result is context rather than a forecast driver.

Does the JAO price forecast DAM?

No. The live 189-day test used only HU-UA, SK-UA and PL-UA import-auction data and showed first-diff r -0.075, so the daily clearing price is not promoted as a price forecast feature.

How does this connect to cross-border basis?

Basis compares UA price pressure with neighbouring context. JAO adds the capacity-right scarcity layer: offered MW, requested MW, cleared EUR/MW and oversubscription.

JAO shows the price of border capacity rights, not the price of electricity.

What JAO reads

HowTo: read JAO auctions

What not to claim

Checklist and fields

JAO auctions FAQ

Why is JAO on /status?

Does the JAO price forecast DAM?

How does this connect to cross-border basis?

Want JAO beside flows?