Tutorial · decision ledger
The ledger joins the logged decision brief to the realized market outcome. It is an audit record for traders, risk teams and CFOs: timing, forecast error, pair hit-rate and captured spread, without turning history into a profit promise.
Action gate, rationaleId, forecast model, p50 and band that were shown when the brief was served.
Realized price and signed error = realized minus forecast p50 once the outcome is matched.
Pair hit-rate and captured spread for recommended buy/sell pairs, when those pairs were captured.
The headline reads only pre-gate decisions; post-gate rows stay retrospective accounting.
A pending row has no realized price yet, so it should not be used as outcome evidence.
Pre-gate means the decision was logged before 12:00 Kyiv on D-1; post-gate must not blend into the headline.
Hit-rate without pairs and decisions is misleading: always inspect the sample that produced the metric.
CSV/JSON export is meaningful for reconciled rows: p50, band, realized, signed error and timing basis stay visible.
Captured spread is realized accounting of recommended pairs, not portfolio profit and not a lift claim.
Rows logged after the gate do not count toward the headline: that day's auction prices were already known when they were logged.
The ledger is an audit-friendly record, not a cryptographic hash-chain or regulator-grade immutability layer.
Fields that must not collapse into one success number.
ledger.row = {
action: served action gate,
decidedAt: when the brief was generated,
targetDate: delivery day,
forecastP50: served median forecast,
realizedPrice: later market outcome,
outcomeError: realized - forecastP50,
decisionQuality: {
hits: recommended pairs whose ordering held,
capturedSpreadUah: realized spread captured,
availableSpreadUah: best-case spread in the scored window
}
}No. Pair hit-rate asks whether the recommended buy/sell ordering held after prices realized. Forecast accuracy is read separately through error, bias and band coverage.
It is the realized spread attached to the stored recommended pairs, shown beside available spread. It is decision accounting, not a P&L guarantee.
When a brief is generated after the day-ahead gate has closed, the day's auction prices were already set. The row is useful for audit, but not for headline track record.
The tenant-scoped ledger appears after sign-in: rows are tied to your account and can be exported as an evidence pack.