Tutorial · forecast band
The forecast band shows the range where the model expects most realized prices and signals honestly when evidence gets weaker. Alvo does not submit orders and does not turn p90 into a price guarantee.
Tutorial · forecast band
The median price scenario read by the trading plan. It is not a clearing guarantee.
The lower and upper bounds of an approximately 80% uncertainty interval.
The Giacomini-White test must support that the model really beats the naive baseline.
Coverage, PIT/Kupiec/Winkler and pinball show whether the band stays honest.
Do not use the signal when the source is stale, unavailable or the sample is too short.
p50 is the median scenario, useful for planning, but not a guaranteed market outcome.
A wide band means more uncertainty; a narrow band without calibration is not proof.
When significance or coverage is weak, use the band as a warning layer, not as a green light.
p90 is not a maximum price, and p10 is not a floor. They are uncertainty bounds.
Do not show only p50 or the most attractive hour without freshness, coverage and caveats.
V1 is decision support: the trader owns the order; Alvo supplies data, band and audit trail.
Tutorial · forecast band
Minimal sequence before a human decision.
1. Confirm freshness: source is live, not stale. 2. Read p50 first: this is the median scenario, not a promise. 3. Compare p10-p90 width: wide band = more uncertainty. 4. Check GW/calibration: weak significance or poor coverage means hold back.
Field names an integration should treat as uncertainty.
forecast.points[hour] = {
p10: lower uncertainty bound,
p50: median served forecast,
p90: upper uncertainty bound
}
forecast.metrics = {
coverage: share of holdout prices inside p10-p90,
significance: Giacomini-White gate vs naive baseline
}Tutorial · forecast band
No. p90 is the upper edge of an uncertainty interval, not a cap and not a clearing guarantee.
The Giacomini-White test checks whether the historical model edge over the naive baseline is statistically real, with HAC protection for daily recalibration.
Treat the band as a warning layer: defer the decision, reduce volume or require manual review.
The workspace shows p10/p50/p90 next to OREE prices, cross-border regime and a deterministic decision brief.