Tutorial · BESS revenue

BESS revenue in Ukraine starts with reserves, not arbitrage.

This is a research-grade read over real DAM, Energy Map reserve and activation prices: a representative 1 MW / 2 MWh BESS shows a reserve stack around 48-64k UAH/MW-day in 2024–2026 (one or two activation cycles a day), while arbitrage in the same years rose from 5.1k in 2024 to 9.1k in 2026 (Jan–May). It is not a steady-state forecast, not an order recommendation and not a guaranteed return.

Read the 5 steps Open BESS workspace

48-64k UAH/MW-day882 paired daysnot guaranteed

Reserve stack

LO case: 47,866 UAH/MW-day from capacity plus 1 activation cycle; HI case: 63,676 UAH/MW-day with 2 cycles/day and an optimistic flag.

Capacity-only

Reserve availability alone is about 32,056 UAH/MW-day, before activation energy is added.

Arbitrage-only

DAM arbitrage averages about 4,193 UAH/MW-day over the 1,971 days of 2021–2026; it rose from 1.7k in 2021 to 9.1k in 2026 (Jan–May).

Scope

The activation-inclusive study uses 882 paired IPS days from 2024-01..2026-05; the capacity-only reserve vs arbitrage backtest used 1,971 paired days.

How to read BESS revenue

1. Start with the configuration

The numbers belong to a representative 1 MW / 2 MWh BESS, 88% round-trip, 1 cycle/day. Another duration or power ratio changes the split.

2. Separate the legs

Capacity-only reserve revenue, activation energy and DAM arbitrage use different data sources, units and caveats.

3. Read LO before HI

LO around 47.9k UAH/MW-day is the defensible one-cycle read; HI around 63.7k assumes 2 cycles/day and should stay optimistic.

4. Allow for wartime prices

2022-2026 reserve prices are wartime-elevated; post-recovery compression and auction competition can lower realized capture.

5. Keep the study apart from the planner

The workspace study card reads Alvo's own data sample or a fallback; legacy reserve-economics planner legs can remain illustrative, but must be labelled as assumptions rather than tied to the imbalance-price feed.

Limits of this signal

Not a guaranteed return

48-64k UAH/MW-day is a research-grade study band, not a bankable revenue guarantee.

Not a post-war forecast

War-elevated reserve prices are useful evidence, but not a post-recovery price forecast.

Not a commercial model

The split leaves out settlement rules, qualification, derating, capture rate and SoC-aware dispatch; a commercial assessment needs its own model.

Not an order recommendation

The split informs analysis; it does not tell a participant to bid, buy, sell or build.

Study constants

Fields that keep LO/HI and arbitrage separate.

BESS_REVENUE_STUDY = {
  sample: 882 paired IPS days for activation-inclusive reserve stack,
  capacityOnlyUahMwDay: 32056,
  reserveStackLowUahMwDay: 47866,
  reserveStackHighUahMwDay: 63676,
  arbitrageOnlyUahMwDay: 4193, // 1971 paired DAM + ancillary days, 2021-01..2026-05
  matchedCapacityOnlyUahMwDay: 30854 // capacity-only on those same 1971 days
}

scope = research-grade read of Alvo's own data sample, not a steady-state forecast or guaranteed return

Why do reserves dominate?

On the same 1,971 days of 2021–2026, reserve capacity alone pays about 7x the DAM arbitrage leg: 30,854 versus 4,193 UAH/MW-day. Arbitrage is rising: 5.1k in 2024 and 9.1k in 2026 (Jan–May). It is still secondary.

Why do 882 days and 1,971 days both matter?

1,971 paired days compare capacity-only reserves with DAM arbitrage from 2021-01..2026-05. The 882-day slice is newer because activation prices exist for 2024+ and power the activation-inclusive LO/HI band.

Why is LO safer than HI?

LO budgets one activation cycle and is the defensible reading. HI assumes two one-directional cycles per day; real aFRR calls can net symmetrically and reduce throughput.

BESS revenue in Ukraine starts with reserves, not arbitrage.

What the study shows

How to read BESS revenue

Limits of this signal

Figures

BESS revenue FAQ

Why do reserves dominate?

Why do 882 days and 1,971 days both matter?

Why is LO safer than HI?

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