Live, not a backtest
Every forecast scored here was archived before the 12:00 Kyiv day-ahead gate on the day before delivery, and none has been changed since. The scoring rules are frozen, and no month is left out of the score.
Delivery days Jun 21, 2026 – Oct 19, 2026 · Recomputed Oct 18, 2026
rMAE against the seasonal-naive benchmark
0.847
95% CI 0.789–0.905
Verdict under the frozen rule: beats seasonal-naive at n = 117
Months are not chosen: the table lists every calendar month of the window, each with its own n, dates and confidence interval. An rMAE above 1 means the forecast erred more than the benchmark that month.
| Month | Days | rMAE (95% CI) | MAE forecast / benchmark | Bias | Days better / worse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 2026Jun 21, 2026 – Jun 30, 2026 | 10 | 1.0220.948–1.096 | 1,559.2 / 1,525.2 | -497.3 | 2 / 8 |
| July 2026Jul 01, 2026 – Jul 31, 2026 | 28 | 0.8480.727–0.969 | 1,002.0 / 1,181.5 | +112.1 | 14 / 14 |
| August 2026Aug 01, 2026 – Aug 31, 2026 | 31 | 0.7630.641–0.885 | 1,451.1 / 1,902.6 | -299.1 | 23 / 8 |
| September 2026Sep 01, 2026 – Sep 30, 2026 | 29 | 0.8660.775–0.956 | 1,412.5 / 1,631.2 | -306.1 | 20 / 9 |
| October 2026Oct 01, 2026 – Oct 19, 2026 | 19 | 0.8910.780–1.002 | 1,448.9 / 1,626.5 | -263.8 | 14 / 5 |
MAE and bias in UAH/MWh.
Excluded days are named on every recompute and never filled in after the fact.
The rules were fixed on Sep 23, 2026, after an informal first look at this same archive. Nobody had seen the deliveries from Sep 24, 2026 on at that point; they are reported on their own, with their own verdict, once 60 of them are scored.
Scored so far: 26 of 60.
